Reflexivity at Work in TGP2
The Coming Boom

Written By Colin Delia
Director - TGP2 Bucks
Moderator - Oprano TGP2 Board

George Soros, one of the world's greatest financial speculators outlined a concept that he calls reflexivity in his book "The Alchemy of Finance". In a 1994 speech at MIT, Soros described reflexivity as "a two-way feedback mechanism in which reality helps shape the participants' thinking and the participants' thinking helps shape reality in an unending process ..." in which thinking and reality may come to approach each other but can never become identical." Soros has used this thesis to explain various Boom-Bust sequences in the markets including the recent high-flying internet stock prices and their subsequent collapse.

Reflexivity is at work right now in TGP2. As the largest TGP2s get larger, they attract more people to TGP2. In turn, this helps the largest TGP2s to grow and then this attracts yet more people. It's not just webmaster's perceptions of traffic that counts. As more and more sponsors and hosts create special deals for TGP2 webmasters this too changes the perceptions of adult webmasters. This reflexive feedback loop can cause rapid growth.

At first, for four consecutive weeks, TGP2 went from about 10k uniques/day to 100k. This happened as webmasters heard about what was going on. Their perceptions changed. Then TGP2 growth slowed down a bit. Here, slow still meant about 15% per week! Most everyone had heard of TGP2 and they had either chosen to wait or participate. Now, new psyhological barriers are being broken. The largest TGP2 is around 20k/day and there are a few over 10k/day now. This is fueling the fire again.

Before four days ago, TGP2 Stats had never counted 130k uniques. Then it broke 130k uniques three days in a row. The day before I wrote this, it counted 144k uniques over all it's TGP2s. Today, it will break that. Now, more traditional TGP webmasters and gallery makers are being attracted by the rapid growth which in turn is fueling even more rapid growth. More sponsors are opening their eyes. Here at TGP2 Bucks, we have seen extremely rapid growth the past 7 days. This causes us to allocate more resources to our TGP2 projects and this in turn causes other sponsors to notice.

I find this to be an excellent demonstration of Soros' reflexive mechanism at work. The feedback loop is powerful. The success of TGP2 fuels it's further success.

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